When Planning, Assume Or You Are Doomed

When forecasting the market or the weather, clear—and clearly articulated—assumptions are key.
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Every organization has planners. And these planners write plans. These plans are reviewed and critiqued before they are signed off on and implemented. Yet often the plan does not deliver, and taking corrective action is problematic.

A big issue is assumptions: We are told not to assume, but for planning purposes, either we assume or we fail.

The missing piece in most plans is clarity about the assumptions. Plans are made to be executed in reality, not in a vacuum. Therefore, understanding the assumptions that the plans are built on is vital. Without understanding the assumptions, it is difficult to decipher whether the plan is appropriate.

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future. 
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Most of our plans start with an extensive analysis of where we are now. This is both necessary and appropriate. However, we usually miss out on the most fundamental part of this. The aim of planning is to prepare for the future, and we can only do that if we have an idea of what the future will be like.

In a stable market, where tomorrow is a slight tweak on today, those that do this poorly can get away with it for a while. However, in more dynamic environments—like the one we are in now—the chances of being caught out increases significantly. In our day-to-day lives, we apply this principle regularly albeit in less complex scenarios.

Before we go out on a day trip or holiday, we use the weather forecast to decide on what to wear and what to take. If it is likely to rain, we take an umbrella and coat; if it is sunny, we take sunglasses; if there is a thunderstorm, we may not go out at all. And when we notice our assumptions are incorrect, we adapt our plans accordingly.

Great plans are forward looking

Trying to uncover the key assumption that plans are built on can be difficult, but not as difficult as trying to sell a plan that is baseless—without clear assumptions, impossible to judge.

Too often, we end up building plans to deal with today’s reality and today’s issues. But great plans are forward and designed to work in tomorrow’s environment.

To this end, we need to state succinctly our assumptions about our market, customers, competitors, resources, and environment. On these assumptions we build our plan.

If we are in agreement about the assumptions we are making about these key areas, the plan is more likely to gain agreement and to generate meaningful discussion about its perceived effectiveness.

Admittedly, just because we make assumptions does not mean that these assumptions are correct. The benefit of stating our assumptions clearly is that it forces our analysis to have a clear aim—understanding the future.

If our assumption does not materialize, then we know that we need to adapt our plans. There are probably hundreds of assumptions one could make about the market, customers and competitors. The important point is to identify the

• Key Assumptions
• Business Drivers
• Pillars of Decision-making

Although the old saying states that to ‘assume’ makes an ‘ass’  out of ‘u’ and ‘me’, in reality the losers are those who do not know or state clearly the assumptions on which their plans are based.

Do you know, and have you communicated clearly, the key assumptions on which your  plans are based?

(Source: “When Planning, Assume or You’re Doomed ” by Mal Barnard, Pharma Expert Contributor  | Published online at http://social.eyeforpharma.com/ on 5 July 2010)

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